A thought experiment: Your next door neighbor has always been a menace, beady-eyed with a seemingly permanent scowl that suggests a profound dislike and distrust of the world. The world, of course, has always repaid him in kind.
You are certain that previously, he has stolen a number of expensive pieces of equipment and tools you kept in a shed at the back of your property, but you were never able to successfully see a legal claim through to fruition.
Then one day you’re sitting down to breakfast when you see him and his sons descend upon your home with weapons and clubs, angrily demanding that you turn over the deed to your longtime home.
You are shocked and of course refuse, whereupon the men start laying dynamite around your foundation. Your family members try to stop them and a battle for your very survival ensues.
But I do know this: through history, the number of bullies and conquerors drunk on power who voluntarily declared satiation and satisfaction, with no need nor desire for any more land, money, servants, monuments and taxpayers, is exactly zero.
Meanwhile, another friendly neighbor arrives, assesses the situation, and engages your hostile neighbor in earnest discussion, even as your family continues its struggle to repel the invaders. Vsible damage is already showing on your home. Finally, your friendly neighbor approaches you and says he has the answer that will restore peace and leave you secure.
All you must do is subdivide the portion of your property that contains your front bedroom, bathroom, half your kitchen and patio, deed it over to your hostile neighbor at no charge, and in return, he will cease his hostilities.
In the bargain, you must also promise not to take any defensive measures to prevent a similar future occurrence. That includes a prohibition on seeking promises of help from other neighbors, and a strict limitation on the number of people living in your home who could help if your neighbor invades again, which he won’t in any case, because he promises not to.
Your friendly neighbor confides in you that this is probably as good of a “deal” as you are going to get from your hostile neighbor, and advises you to take it, or else he will have to bow out of efforts to plead your cause.
Strange and outrageous as that all sounds, it is simply to welcome you to the initial stages of the Russia-Ukraine peace “negotiations” in late November, 2025.
***
***
One of the largely overlooked stories of the worldwide news blitzkrieg of 2025 has been Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regular hellraising escapades into multiple sovereign European countries, most of with whom he shares a border.
Apparently not content to obliterate the very idea of Ukraine in an illegal war he looks prepared to wage until the last Ukrainian building turns to rubble, Putin has in recent months been turning his attention to others of his neighbors.
• Drones impinging into the airspace of Poland and Estonia.
• Decimation of a rail line linking Poland to Ukraine.
• Two Russian fighter jets sent into Estonian airspace for an extended (12-minute) foray, requiring a quick scramble of Italian jets from a NATO base who “escorted” the Russians back across their border.
• Electronic warfare waged against multiple NATO countries, “spoofing” GPS signals and thus wreaking potential havoc for both civilian and military transportation.
European Union and NATO military leaders have interpreted these incursions as Putin simply testing the readiness of European countries, and crucially, their willingness to respond substantively to these clear violations of international law.
How seriously Europe is viewing Putin’s repeated probes can be seen in this headline from the online publication “Politico” on Thursday:
“Europe thinks the unthinkable: Retaliating against Russia.”
It is “unthinkable” simply because it hasn’t been done in the 25 years since Putin began putting the lid back on Russia’s brief flirtation with democracy. Like some distasteful, self-styled lothario, Putin has convinced himself through his years of consolidating power that he can bring to heel all those unmoved by his charms simply by employing enough persistence, cunning and sheer force of will, all of those including as much barbarism and brutality as deemed sufficient for his needs.
And for the most part, it has worked. Sure, there have been rhetorical denunciations and various economic sanctions by the dozens, but little else. Meanwhile, the beat has gone on.
Overrunning or otherwise securing influence with Chechnya, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Crimea? Check, check, check, check, check.
Securing outsize influence and mutual admiration with (NATO member!) Hungary? Check.
Midway through the war’s fourth year, getting a red carpet welcome on American soil from a clapping, almost giddy American president ready to negotiate with you about the war’s end in a meeting from which Ukraine has been excluded? Life is good!
But suddenly, some chill winds are blowing in from unexpected sources. Per Politico’s reporting by Victor Jack and Laura Kayali:
Is it possible that Europe, both frightened and goaded by the U.S. administration’s tilt toward Russia and fearful what kind of license Putin might think that gives him to pursue future hostilities, is finally ready to rear up on its back and bellow “NO MORE!” to that beleaguered continent’s resurgent bully?
Another strong hint in that direction surfaced this past week after the shambolic rollout of a supposed U.S.-Russia peace plan on which neither Ukraine nor Europe had even been consulted. The confusing and contradictory reports about the plan’s very source reflected the Russia-focused, shoot-from-the-hip diplomacy that has typified the approach of Trump and his realtor-friend-turned-international-statesman Steve Witkoff.
The Europeans then leaped into the fray with carefully nuanced language that took pains not to trigger the ever-sensitive President Trump but which helped revise the most egregious giveaways to Russian interests and at least offered a different starting point for launching a serious negotiation.
Will Putin accede to it? Highly unlikely.
He is a dictator with the upper hand militarily, with a much larger population, many more young men of fighting age, and a complete absence of concern for feeding as many hundreds of thousands more of them into his death machine as will be required to achieve his goal of a subservient vassal state in Ukraine.
It helps in these matters to be burdened with neither a conscience nor opposition of any kind in a totalitarian state.
But then what? Ukraine has paid a fearsome price, and all indications are that unlike Russia, they cannot do so forever. The utterly mercurial Trump is likely to turn on a dime in six different directions before becoming irritated and washing his hands ala Pontius Pilate of the whole matter. That could happen at any moment.
Does that leave it to Europe, with at least some financial or logistical support from the U.S. and various others (Australia, New Zealand, Canada?), to pick up the lion’s share in an unrestrained manner that fully absorbs the gravity of the threat Russia now poses to its way of life?
Does Europe have the resources and the will?
I don’t know. I think it’s safe to say most seasoned international observers have their doubts.
But I do know this: through history, the number of bullies and conquerors drunk on power who voluntarily declared satiation and satisfaction, with no need nor desire for any more land, money, servants, monuments and taxpayers, is exactly zero. And if Putin succeeds in taking down Ukraine, he will most assuredly not become the first one.
Instead, it will be onto the Baltic states and Poland for starters, with quite a bit more than an occasional drone or fighter jet probe. More like a domino theory for the 21st century, come to dark life.
Continent, beware.
And with the U.S. tending its “enemy within” and hesitant to engage in foreign conflicts outside of occasional shelling of speed and fishing boats suspected (but never yet verified) of carrying drugs,, the other, more refined bully on the other block of China will surely once again eye Taiwan, seeing it as its just desserts in a brand new world order.
This modern 21st century model would then be shaping up as one that sees big countries rampaging and taking as they please, with small countries hoping only to stay under the radar and out of the worst harm’s way.
But wait a minute: Wasn’t that the old world order?
***
***
See and hit the Follow button at https://www.facebook.com/andrew.hidas for regular 1-minute or less dispatches from the world’s great thinkers, artists and musers, accompanied always by lovely photography.
Deep appreciation to the photographers! Unless otherwise stated, some rights reserved under Creative Commons licensing
Homepage rotating banner photos (except for library books) by Elizabeth Haslam https://www.flickr.com/photos/lizhaslam/
Library books by Larry Rose, Redlands, California, all rights reserved, contact: larry@rosefoto.com
Kyiv city center by Trey Ratcliff, Queesntown, New Zealand https://www.flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/
Dogs of war by UNDP (United Nations Development Program) Ukraine https://www.flickr.com/photos/undpukraine/
Well said, Andrew. I vote that you be added as an Opinion writer for the Times!!
I’ll take that gig if it’s on offer, Harriet, but it looks like they have a pretty full roster at the moment…Thanks for dropping in!
The analogy between the poor man’s losing his property and the proposed “peace” plan to end the war in the Ukraine is nearly perfect except for one significant detail. When the beady eyed, menacing neighbor, known throughout the subdivision as Vlad the Impaler, finally gained complete control of his neighbor’s house, he took out a million-dollar insurance policy on it and burnt it to the ground. Then, he and the “well-meaning neighbor” who engineered the deal sank the insurance money into a hotel-casino-golf course in Yalta, a popular tourist destination spot on Crimea’s Black Sea.
Per usual, trying to fathom the depths of depravity of Vlad the Impaler is a loser’s game, because one’s imagination can never quite sink low enough. Thanks for filling in this detail, my man….